Evaluating suitability of MODIS-Terra images for reproducing historic sediment concentrations in water bodies: Lake Tana, Ethiopia

Government and NGO funded conservation programs are being implemented in developing countries with the potential benefit of reduced sediment inflow into fresh water lakes. However, these claims are difficult to verify due to limited historical sediment concentration data in lakes and rivers. Remote sensing can potentially aid in monitoring sediment concentration. With almost daily availability over the past ten years and consistent atmospheric correction applied to the images, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 meter images are potential resources capable of monitoring future concentrations and reconstructing historical sediment concentration records. In this paper, sitespecific relationships are developed between reflectance in near-infrared (NIR) images and three factors: total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity and Secchi depth for Lake Tana near the mouth of the Gumara River. The first two sampling campaigns on November 27, 2010 and May 13, 2011 are used in calibration. Reflectance in the NIR varies linearly with turbidity (R2 = 0.89) and TSS (R2 = 0.95). Secchi depth fit best to an exponential relation with R2 of 0.74. The relationships are validated using a third sample set collected on November 7, 2011 with RMSE of 11 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) for Turbidity, 16.5 mg l−1 for TSS and 0.12 meters for Secchi depth. The MAE was 10% for TSS, 14% for turbidity and 0.1% for Secchi depth. Using the relationship for TSS, a 10-year time series of sediment concentration in Lake Tana near the Gumara River was plotted. It was found that after the severe drought of 2002 and 2003 the concentration in the lake increased significantly. The results showed that MODIS images are potential cost effective tools to monitor suspended sediment concentration and obtain a past history of concentration for evaluating ment the effect of best manage